Mumbai, Chennai may reach climate tipping point by 2034: Study

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Around 20 years from now, Mumbai and Chennai could routinely start witnessing temperatures hotter than the two cities have experienced in 150 years, an alarming new University of Hawaii study predicting the climate 'tipping points' of various cities around the world has warned.

By 2045, Pune, Surat, Jaipur, Bangalore and Ahmedabad would have joined the ranks of cities showing such climate departure, which means even the monthly dips in temperatures would be hotter than that experienced in 150 years (ending 2005), states the paper published in Nature on Wednesday.

The study, a massive new analysis of all climate models, says most cities around the world would have reached their climate tipping points by 2047 if no new steps to contain carbon dioxide emission are initiated.

(Read the full report here)

The paper carries predictions for 10 Indian cities, saying Mumbai and Chennai will be the first to reach the 'point of no return' — as early as 2034 — in the "business as usual" scenario wherein the world makes no special efforts to cut emissions.

Written By: Vishwa Mohan
continue to source article at economictimes.indiatimes.com

26 COMMENTS

  1. I’m not questioning the results, but the peculiar way they are expressed – what does it mean?

    The last page of their press release has a graph, and the legend best explains it:- ( http://www.soc.hawaii.edu/mora/PublicationsCopyRighted/Mora%20et%20al%20Press%20Release.pdf), which indicates the explanation above is wrong.

    What they appear to be saying is the “tipping point” is when the mean annual temperature of the model is higher than the mean annual temperature of each of the last 150 years of historical data (i.e. model’s lowest trough is higher than the historical highest peak over the last 150 years). But that means that the higher the variance in the historical data, the longer it takes to get to the tipping point, and the higher the variance in the model, the longer to the tipping point. Surely, we only need to know, say, how long before the long term mean rises by n degrees?

    Ah, this tells it is how long it will take for a climate sceptic to see past variations in the weather to realise the underlying climate has actually changed. But we already know when that will happen – too late to do anything about it.

    • In reply to #1 by God fearing Atheist:

      Ah, this tells it is how long it will take for a climate sceptic to see past variations in the weather to realise the underlying climate has actually changed. But we already know when that will happen – too late to do anything about it.

      I think we need to be careful about using language like “too late to do anything about it” when talking about climate change. I mean I completely get your point, and for that matter I think it’s already “too late” in the sense that climate change is happening and will get worse even if we started a shift to renewables immediately. But I’ve noticed one of the clever tactics of the deniers is when all else fails to say “well yeah guess we were wrong after all but it’s too late to do anything now”. And that’s wrong. Climate change is a continuous process, it’s not like we wake up one day and the climate has changed and that’s that. The changes happen continuously and it’s never “too late” to try slowing them down and perhaps eventually reverse them.

  2. I think that perhaps Mother Nature is hinting at something, tipping us a wink, giving us the nod.

    But, most unfortunately, far too many of us are treating her hints nods and winks with breath taking arrogance and complacency born of greed, and our predicament is rendered even more dangerous by the fact that most of the idiot “climate cynics” are running the joint and only interested in the short term prospects money or votes, or both.

    I think a gin and tonic is called for.

  3. The attitude of most Canadians is “Let’s wait until 2047 and people are falling around us like flies. There is no point in acting prematurely. We have money to make in the meantime selling all our bitumen and natural gas to China. Jobs are more important.”

    The catch is the climate is like a giant aircraft carrier. You can’t change course on a dime. It will take centuries to undo some of the damage.

    • The need for population control is also being denied, and in my opinion is the bigger problem. Control / reduce the global population and virtually all the other problems will disappear. Opponents to my argument often stray off to how it would be done as a distraction, as an excuse to do nothing. The same thing is happening now with climate change. Individual governments (UK) are claiming that they are only contributing a few percent (2%) to climate change, so they are not going to bother doing anything. (not even its own 2%).

      In reply to #4 by Roedy:

      The catch is the climate is like a giant aircraft carrier. You can’t change course on a dime. It will take centuries to undo some of the damage.

      Yes but how fast can you sink it?

      • In reply to #6 by old-toy-boy:

        The need for population control is also being denied, and in my opinion is the bigger problem. Control / reduce the global population and virtually all the other problems will disappear. Opponents to my argument often stray off to how it would be done as a distraction, as an excuse to do nothing. Th…

        Population of the world is 7.046 billion. Population of UK is 63.23 million. So in effect UK holds only 0.90% of world population, but contributes 2%.

        UK gets a pass because it used the labour of millions of slaves, indentured servants and colonial subjects to build itself a capitalist “free market” economy and a well funded cocoon and fortress, it gets to dump more on the planet? This sort of inane, irrational and xenophobic attitude is the reason why we have so much disparity in the world. The prevailing attitude in western Europe that somehow paying million pound deals to sports stars and celebrities is an essential part of their “culture” while the poor Sub-saharan Africans cant have their universities or high ways or hospitals as it might increase carbon consumption is just appalling.

        Nothing has changed ever changed in Europe, even after two of the most barbaric conflict the world has ever seen, it still remains the abode of a war mongering, racial supremacist and self adulating Neanderthal tribe. Before you comment on over population of the under developed world, how about looking at the inane and philistine extravagance like English premier league, Formula one, Britain Got Talent, Great British Bakeoff and an infantile monarchy. They are so essential for human well being, aren’t they?

    • In reply to #4 by Roedy:

      The attitude of most Canadians is “Let’s wait until 2047 and people are falling around us like flies. There is no point in acting prematurely. We have money to make in the meantime selling all our bitumen and natural gas to China. Jobs are more important.”

      The catch is the climate is like a giant…

      I’ve read a couple of books by Climatologists that say Canada is one of the few places that may have a net benefit from climate change. As large parts of the US become untenable for farming large parts of Canada that used to be too cold may become excellent farm land.

      • In reply to #10 by Red Dog:

        I’ve read a couple of books by Climatologists that say Canada is one of the few places that may have a net benefit from climate change.

        I’m not sure. While parts will be warmer and wetter, there will be huge areas which are accessible on winter ice, which will turn to swamp when the permafrost melts.

        • In reply to #12 by Alan4discussion:

          In reply to #10 by Red Dog:

          I’ve read a couple of books by Climatologists that say Canada is one of the few places that may have a net benefit from climate change.

          I’m not sure. While parts will be warmer and wetter, there will be huge areas which are accessible on winter ice, which will turn to…

          I agree, it’s just a speculation and could be wrong. I only saw it in a couple of books and even those were more “it may turn out to be actually good for Canada in some ways” not something that could be predicted with strong certainty. Climate is so complex and chaotic it’s difficult to predict what’s going to happen with any specificity, beyond that it’s going to make life a lot worse for a lot of people.

          • In reply to #13 by Red Dog:

            Climate is so complex and chaotic it’s difficult to predict what’s going to happen with any specificity, beyond that it’s going to make life a lot worse for a lot of people.

            It is indeed complex. According to climate models, on there will be a reduction of Himalayan glacial meltwater in the rivers of India, but while there will be a slight reduction in the Yellow River(Yankze) the flow will actually increase due to a local increase in rainfall.

            (Just wait for the deniers to cherry-pick that!)

            Some localities and industries will benefit to produce more profit – like the reckless drilling for oil in the Arctic as ice recedes – while the damage hits most other areas, as the climate belts move towards the poles and the tropical deserts expand.

            Political decisions can affect many features including time scales.

  4. The hotter it gets, the more water you need(especially for agriculture), and the less you have. And of course India’s population continues to climb, making matters even worse.

    climate departure map

    Have a look at the map above of the tipping point year for each world city. What is unfair is the tropical countries tip very soon, and the culprits who created this mess, get nailed last.

    • In reply to #5 by Roedy:

      The hotter it gets, the more water you need(especially for agriculture), and the less you have. And of course India’s population continues to climb, making matters even worse.

      ..And the bad news is, that with climate change, as the temperature goes up, their water supply goes down! – Apart from a few temporary floods!

      http://sandrp.wordpress.com/2013/08/18/iwmi-report-on-glaciers-and-snow-cover-in-himalayas-in-changing-climate-significant-impact-on-seasonal-flow-of-the-rivers-in-india/

      The reports also states, “Glaciers and seasonal snow in CC-impact assessments should be perceived as natural water reservoirs with gradually diminishing storage and flow regulation capacity, both on intra-annual and inter-annual scale. Potential changes of precipitation regime coupled with effects of temperature rise on evapo-transpiration will impact future hydrological regimes of the major rivers much more significantly, affecting both MAF and flow seasonality.”

      The authors of this report clear some fog around climate change and Himalayan glacier system and snow-melt. One lacuna of the report is that even though the report discusses glacier run-off it makes no mentions of glacier lakes and glacier lakes induced floods. There are several incidents of glacier lake induced floods happening in the basins discussed. There is evidence to show that in the recent flood devastation in Uttarakhand in India glacial lakes played significant role.

      The supply of glacial melt water to their major rivers will reduce in the longer term, whilst a slight increase in rainfall will mitigate this very slightly. This will affect hydro electric power, irrigated agriculture and water supplies.

  5. “What has been released so far is the approved Summary for Policymakers as well as the final drafts (version 7 June 2013) of the underlying chapters and the Technial Summary (downloadable free of charge from http://www.climatechange2013.org). These drafts are still subject to copy edit, error correction and any necessary changes for consistency with the approved SPM. We anticipate that the full report in its finalised and publication-ready form will be released electronically in January 2014. At that time, also all the review comments and responses will become part of the public record and will be posted on our web site.”
    Please do not hesitate to contact us again should you have further questions.

    Thank you again for your interest and please accept our apology for the late response.

    Best regards,

    IPCC WGI TSU

    ———————————————————————

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

    Working Group I – Technical Support Unit

    University of Bern Phone: +41 31 631 5616

    Zaehringerstrasse 25 Fax: +41 31 631 5615

    3012 Bern wg1@ipcc.unibe.ch

    Switzerland http://www.ipcc-wg1.unibe.ch

    ———————————————————————

    Ermmm why the need to make “any necessary changes for CONSISTENCY WITH THE APPROVED SPM”???

    It stinks. Yet again.

    • In reply to #14 by flamenco:

      “What has been released so far is the approved Summary for Policymakers as well as the final drafts (version 7 June 2013) of the underlying chapters and the Technial Summary (downloadable free of charge from http://www.climatechange2013.org). These drafts are still subject to copy edit, error correction an…

      Paranoid much? If you think you know more about this than the researchers doing this day in and day out, write a paper, provide some evidence, get it peer reviewed and published. Until then, we don’t really care about the opinions of tin foil wearing conspiracy nuts.

      • Errrr… Not my words.

        They’re from the IPCC.

        In reply to #15 by soulreaver:

        In reply to #14 by flamenco:

        “What has been released so far is the approved Summary for Policymakers as well as the final drafts (version 7 June 2013) of the underlying chapters and the Technial Summary (downloadable free of charge from http://www.climatechange2013.org). These drafts are still subject to…

        • In reply to #16 by flamenco:

          Errrr… Not my words.

          They’re from the IPCC.

          In reply to #15 by soulreaver:

          In reply to #14 by flamenco:

          “What has been released so far is the approved Summary for Policymakers as well as the final drafts (version 7 June 2013) of the underlying chapters and the Technial Summary (downloadable fr…

          I will reiterate. I have no problem with IPCC having to “copy edit, error correction and any necessary changes for consistency with the approved SPM” That does not reek of any errors. That is how things are done in the real world. Even in academia, you don’t just do it in one shot. If you want to publish a paper, first you write a draft, discuss it with your supervisor, ask your colleagues and other experts to look at it and give you a feedback if they have time to spare, then you submit your paper for peer review, you get feedback and further questions, if needed you modify the article to reflect those concerns, if any, then you resend, and then it goes the publication process.

          So no, I don’t cry wolf every time an organization made of researchers go through the same process. You are forgetting that, we are rationalists, skeptics and atheists here. We do not take written word for granted. Things are to be divine dictates written in indelible inks is not our world view. We are open to reviews, scrutiny and modifications. Capiche!

  6. The details just keep rolling in from a whole range of independent sources and scientific specialisms.

    Global warming will increase intensity of El Nino, scientists say- http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24494398

    Scientists say they are more certain than ever about the impact of global warming on a critical weather pattern.

    The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurs in the Pacific Ocean but plays an important part in the world’s climate system.

    Researchers have until now been unsure as to how rising temperatures would affect ENSO in the future.

    But this new study – http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature12580 – suggests that droughts and floods driven by ENSO will be more intense.

    The ENSO phenomenon plays a complicated role in the global weather system.

    The El Nino part of the equation sees a warming of the eastern and tropical Pacific, while its cooler sister, La Nina, makes things chillier in these same regions.

    • No denial. But a bit curious.

      The science is being tweaked for “any necessary changes for CONSISTENCY WITH THE APPROVED SPM”???

      So the SPM which is a political document, is wagging the catastrophic man made global warming dog.

      Looks a bit fishy to me. If the science could stand on its own two feet, there wouldn’t be a need to massage it to fit the political agenda.

      Unless of course the political agenda is really what it’s about?

      In reply to #20 by Alan4discussion:

      The details just keep rolling in from a whole range of independent sources and scientific specialisms.

      Global warming will increase intensity of El Nino, scientists say- http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24494398

      Scientists say they are more certain than ever about the impact of global…

      • In reply to #21 by flamenco:

        This sort of conspiracy nonsense is laughable. No scientists are going to believe that Nature and other leading scientific journals are in on some sort of conspiracy!

        Looks a bit fishy to me. If the science could stand on its own two feet, there wouldn’t be a need to massage it to fit the political agenda.

        The science has been “standing on its own feet” for years, with thousands of independent reports! It is only the blinkered who won’t look, or can’t read it, who say otherwise!

        Unless of course the political agenda is really what it’s about?

        Of course there is a political agenda! We need to stop wrecking our climate, stop subsidising carbon pollution, and have government backing getting the low-carbon green alternatives up and running on a wide scale.

        A first move is to get the propagandist garbage from the vested interests of carbonaceous Luddites out of the popular media, and replace it with honest science and constructive plans!

        The new technologies are there. – (Energy efficient buildings, ground heat storage, Solar thermal, photovoltaic, wind power, tidal power, hydro-electric power, wave power, geothermal energy, bio-ethanol, bio-diesel, thorium nuclear, improved recycling . . . . .) -

        We just need to get on with developing them world-wide. Many countries are doing so already!

        • Alan, I completely agree with you about the need for honest science and constructive plans, but the recent schemes for the National Grid to pay power companies to build massive diesel powered generator farms to kick in when the wind doesn’t blow, thereby cancelling whatever “decarbonisation” the mostly useless windmills were meant to provide shows that people are not thinking straight. There are plenty of people with their snouts in the “catastrophic man made global warming” trough for it to be gong away anytime soon. In the meantime, hello more heat poverty and goodbye those poor pensioners who have to chose between heating and eating. Doesn’t seem very fair to me. So yes – let’s have honest science eh?

          In reply to #22 by Alan4discussion:

          In reply to #21 by flamenco:

          This sort of conspiracy nonsense is laughable. No scientists are going to believe that Nature and other leading scientific journals are in on some sort of conspiracy!

          Looks a bit fishy to me. If the science could stand on its own two feet, there wouldn’t be a need to…

          • In reply to #23 by flamenco:

            Would you please just stop? Nothing you say is credible nor do these things you bring up ever mean what you think they mean. Either you understand that, which means you’re lying, or you don’t, which means that you’ll probably never understand why you’re wrong. Either way, you’re wasting your time and ours.

          • In reply to #23 by flamenco:

            Alan, I completely agree with you about the need for honest science and constructive plans, but the recent schemes for the National Grid to pay power companies to build massive diesel powered generator farms to kick in when the wind doesn’t blow, thereby cancelling whatever “decarbonisation” http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2362762/The-dirty-secret-Britains-power-madness-Polluting-diesel-generators-built-secret-foreign-companies-kick-theres-wind-turbines–insane-true-eco-scandals.html

            I would agree that this is indeed ridiculous to use diesel generators other than as emergency stand-bys, but rather than pretending the wind-farms are to blame, the responsibility for any power shortage is due to decades of the governments’ failures to invest in advanced gas cooled or thorium nuclear reactors, and more recently its tardiness in supporting tidal energy developments.

            It has been estimated, that Scotland has ten times as much potential tidal energy as it currently uses.

            Perhaps you should have looked at the quality of information you are reading :- “There is currently a concerted campaign to mislead the British public about the factors that are driving up consumers’ electricity and gas bills.” – as was explained in this discussion! http://www.richarddawkins.net/news-articles/2013/10/11/-conservative-media-outlets-found-guilty-of-biased-global-warming-coverage#comment-box-19

            the mostly useless windmills were meant to provide shows that people are not thinking straight.

            The wind turbines are far from useless, and fortunately the wind-speed does fall away everywhere at the same time.

            Quite a number of measures I already mentioned: energy efficient buildings and ground heat storage, solar thermal water heating, and photovoltaic electrical generation, greatly reduce energy needs and household fuel bills.

            BTW: If the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear reactors had had back-up diesel generators the nuclear plants would not have gone into melt-down. If they had been advanced gas-cooled pebble-bed, or thorium reactors, they COULD NOT HAVE MELTED DOWN! They were the “cheaper” water-cooled reactors, so now the Japanese are paying the huge price of cheap and nasty technology!

          • In reply to #25 by Alan4discussion:

            The wind turbines are far from useless, and fortunately the wind-speed does fall away everywhere at the same time.

            This should read: The wind turbines are far from useless, and fortunately the wind-speed does not fall away everywhere at the same time.

            (My typing is still rubbish!)

          • In reply to #23 by flamenco:

            Ah! The foot-shooting that the deceptive carbon stooges of the media instil in the gullible denialist readers!

            flamenco – There are plenty of people with their snouts in the “catastrophic man made global warming” trough for it to be gong away anytime soon. In the meantime, hello more heat poverty and goodbye those poor pensioners who have to chose between heating and eating.

            “Pensioner heat poverty”! – The irony really bites!

            Climate-sceptic newspapers are conspiring with energy firms in a campaign of misinformation on bills, says the former head of the government economic service, Lord Stern.

            He says they want to shift blame for rising bills on to green taxes.

            It is clear, he says, that the real culprit for bill increases has been the soaring price of gas.

            The cost of energy was thrust back into the headlines when the firm SSE announced an 8.2% price rise.

            It blamed part of the rise on taxes supporting renewable power.

            Lord Stern, who wrote an influential global review of climate change economics, said the UK’s dependence on fossil fuels had generated three-quarters of the increase in costs for households.

            Less than a fifth of the £70 rise was forced by green taxes, he said, and most of that goes to help poor families insulate their homes.

            Lord Stern said that with fossil fuel prices likely to continue to rise, support for renewables would actually make bills cheaper in the long run. – http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24494893

            So let’s get this straight!

            flamenco -In the meantime, hello more heat poverty and goodbye those poor pensioners who have to chose between heating and eating.

            Your plan to reduce pensioner heat poverty, is to carry on paying the increasing costs from soaring gas and oil prices, which are responsible for 4/5s of the price rises, and to scrap the green taxes which pay for the grants for free cavity-wall and loft insulation for pensioners and for investment to provide cheaper renewable energy in the future!

            Doesn’t seem very fair to me.

            Doesn’t sound even slightly rational to me!

            So yes – let’s have honest science eh?

            There is an abundance of honest science.
            Unfortunately there is also an abundance of dishonest media outlets, and a supply of gullible readers who are happy to dump their future down the drain, while stooging in denial for the carbon industry executives with their fat-cat bonuses!

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