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through a quantum process known as "Hawking evaporation"
3. Comment #122623 by JerryD385 on February 5, 2008 at 4:54 pm
What an exciting time to be alive, when a potential grand unifying theory could be proved...err, I mean failed to be falsified.4. Comment #122633 by Steve Zara on February 5, 2008 at 5:36 pm
5. Comment #122635 by daddydowse on February 5, 2008 at 5:41 pm
Jerry, you almost took the words out of my mouth. I have a really good feeling that the next decade will bring about scientific advances and resolution to theory that may even bring the successful herding of cats. May we gently rise against faith and wisper softly in its ear "we're getting there and when we have the answers you'd better have a better reply than 'god did it'"6. Comment #122658 by Zakie Chan on February 5, 2008 at 6:36 pm
7. Comment #122669 by MPhil on February 5, 2008 at 7:12 pm
8. Comment #122672 by Steve Zara on February 5, 2008 at 7:19 pm
But if the mathematical equations of String Theory alone were to predict a specific radiation at a specific event, and that exact type of radiation is then observed, that would corroborate the theory - as it would be a testable prediction
9. Comment #122676 by Jason1083 on February 5, 2008 at 7:35 pm
Indeed. However, as the current understanding of String Theory implies 10^500 different realities, the idea of any specific predictions that are falsifiable seems unlikely.
10. Comment #122677 by MPhil on February 5, 2008 at 7:36 pm
11. Comment #122679 by Jason1083 on February 5, 2008 at 7:40 pm
MPhil - Steve is referring to the landscape:12. Comment #122681 by Jason1083 on February 5, 2008 at 7:43 pm
Sorry, just read the link I posted and the description was very bad. Here is a much more intelligible discussion:13. Comment #122683 by Steve Zara on February 5, 2008 at 7:48 pm
But please elaborate on the 10^500 realities.
Also, since a scientific theory is a coherent complex, wouldn't such an observation of specifically predicted radiation corroborate the entire theory, since the same math that predicts the radiation predicts the different realities?
14. Comment #122684 by Steve Zara on February 5, 2008 at 7:51 pm
String theory remains a vibrant field with hundreds of papers published in reputable scientific journals every year. This is the only testament laymen should need to its potential validity.
15. Comment #122685 by MPhil on February 5, 2008 at 7:58 pm
Also, since a scientific theory is a coherent complex, wouldn't such an observation of specifically predicted radiation corroborate the entire theory, since the same math that predicts the radiation predicts the different realities?
No, as that kind of accuracy is not enough to distinguish between String Theory and other ideas.
16. Comment #122686 by SPS on February 5, 2008 at 8:00 pm
Any research by honest scientific minds, in my opinion, comes with an air of excitement about the potential of their findings, whether or not their ideas or theories eventually pan out. I recently read about the Cyclic Universe model. Another interesting view of our universe.17. Comment #122687 by Steve Zara on February 5, 2008 at 8:05 pm
Hmm... shouldn't it rather be that when several theories predict an observed event to the same degree of accuracy, that all these theories are corroborated to a small extent, but when there's only one theory predicting it, or predicting it to a much higher degree of accuracy, that it is corroborated more strongly?
18. Comment #122691 by MPhil on February 5, 2008 at 8:08 pm
19. Comment #122693 by Steve Zara on February 5, 2008 at 8:23 pm
Thanks. Now I see the problem. So, this doesn't mean its non-predictive in general, but that very very specific observations based on extremely specific narrow-range-of-values predictions would have to be made - and it's not certain (or far from certain) that string theory can produce them.
Is that about right?
20. Comment #122696 by MPhil on February 5, 2008 at 8:35 pm
21. Comment #122697 by Rational_G on February 5, 2008 at 8:40 pm
22. Comment #122699 by Jason1083 on February 5, 2008 at 8:47 pm
I hope not. There are many theoretical physicists working on other areas, such as loop quantum gravity, than need support.
23. Comment #122701 by Steve Zara on February 5, 2008 at 8:49 pm
I know I keep asking this, and I definitely don't want to get on your nerves,
but do you know of any more recent books or papers that critically discuss (super)string theory, modern cosmology etc - which someone like me could understand without being able to handle the hard mathematics?
24. Comment #122703 by Steve Zara on February 5, 2008 at 8:54 pm
As an aside, Steve - are you a theoretical physicist?
I don't mean this to be insulting - but if not, why do you think your opinion about the matter should count for anything? I'm not a physicist and I think whatever appraisal I might make of string theory's scientific validity is completely irrelevant.
25. Comment #122705 by Jason1083 on February 5, 2008 at 9:01 pm
Scientific funding is important. My view (as an outsider, and reading books by those who have been involved) is that String Theory has come up with very little after decades of funding.
26. Comment #122707 by Rational_G on February 5, 2008 at 9:04 pm
27. Comment #122708 by Jason1083 on February 5, 2008 at 9:09 pm
I recommend "The Trouble with Physics" by Lee Smolin. No equations. Discusses the string theory controversy within the physics community.
28. Comment #122709 by Steve Zara on February 5, 2008 at 9:10 pm
29. Comment #122711 by MPhil on February 5, 2008 at 9:12 pm
30. Comment #122712 by Jason1083 on February 5, 2008 at 9:16 pm
Jason: a very good post. I think there is an independent way of assessing things, which is quantity of evidence. I recommend Woit's and Smolin's books. Surely we can only fund people like Witten exploring the borders of mathematics and physics for so long, unless they come up with some testable hypothesis?
31. Comment #122715 by Jason1083 on February 5, 2008 at 9:20 pm
And one additional point - it's not as if string theory is exactly stagnant. There has been substantial progress in the past 10 years. Whether the theory is close to making sharp testable predictions is another matter - but I think to call it a failure one of two things would have to happen. Either 1) it would have to make wrong predictions, or 2) graduate students would stop entering the field because it was no longer regarded as promising. I think this is the usual way that unpromising avenues of scientific exploration die and if string theory deserves to die, I expect that it will in due course.32. Comment #122716 by MPhil on February 5, 2008 at 9:20 pm
33. Comment #122717 by Steve Zara on February 5, 2008 at 9:27 pm
But they argue that the theory is so deep and powerful and manages to explain so much of what seemed previously to be unrelated truths that it must be right.
34. Comment #122719 by Rational_G on February 5, 2008 at 9:33 pm
35. Comment #122728 by sarah95 on February 5, 2008 at 10:00 pm
While definitely a gamble, the payoffs from such a search would be enormous, Kavic argues. The successful detection of the kind of black hole explosion the team predicts would confirm not only the existence of extra dimensions, but also of primordial black holes and Hawking evaporation.
"All three of these are quantum gravitational phenomena [and] would drastically alter our view of space-time and the fundamental nature of our universe," Kavic says.
36. Comment #122729 by Roland_F on February 5, 2008 at 10:01 pm
In the 1980s there were already the promise of this great unifying theory and even the theory of everything to be available within a few years (also according to Hawking). Now so many years later indeed nothing of great unifying has come out, just 5 different 9D theories which had to be unified into a common 10D theory M/superstring theory.37. Comment #122743 by mmurray on February 5, 2008 at 11:22 pm
That's true, and they should be given support in proportion to the level of excitement that their ideas generate within the community of their scientific peers as measured by the number of researchers / citations in major journals in the field. I've seen no evidence that the funding for string theory is excessive by this measure. If someone researching loop quantum gravity comes up with an exciting result that generates a large number of citations and motivates other researchers to enter the field, then funding for loop quantum gravity will increase. I just don't see any other basis for someone who isn't a theoretical physicist to prefer one to the other or any other criteria which are reasonable to consider from the prospective of policy-makers who must decide on funding decisions (at least in a field so esoteric that it has no foreseeable implications for social welfare).
I'm not too familiar with the way funding works in this case, but I'd guess most researchers in these highly theoretical fields have tenured positions where they could research whatever they wanted anyway since they don't need to run expensive experiments. I'm sure the presence or absence of grants exerts some force on the direction of research, but it wouldn't prevent someone from pursuing an idea they thought was truly groundbreaking.
38. Comment #122745 by roach on February 5, 2008 at 11:31 pm
So what is the most promising theory since string theory appears to have failed?39. Comment #122750 by sent2null on February 6, 2008 at 12:13 am
My feeling is that this may have been justifiable before the appearance of the "String Landscape". The incorporation of something that seems to be a graviton (the force transmitter of gravity) was encouraging, until the inability to predict the physical constants of our universe. That was the promise of String Theory - that a clear, mathematical framework, with nothing added, would inevitably lead to our reality.
It has failed.
40. Comment #122761 by Steve Zara on February 6, 2008 at 2:12 am
It is way to early to declare string theory a failure.
41. Comment #122779 by padster1976 on February 6, 2008 at 4:00 am
42. Comment #122806 by ianmkz on February 6, 2008 at 5:48 am
I've tried to read books like Brian Greene's 'The Elegant Universe', but it was too much like reading a sales pitch - he spoke about how great the theory was at uniting quantum and relativity theory, without actually explaining it.
I recommend "The Trouble with Physics" by Lee Smolin. No equations.
43. Comment #122824 by RonnieG on February 6, 2008 at 7:08 am
There is an interesting discussion over at Edge from a few months ago between Brian Greene, Paul Steinhardt, and Walter Isaacson. A lot of it is about Einstein, but a large part of the discussion is on string theory as well.44. Comment #122934 by konquererz on February 6, 2008 at 9:30 am
45. Comment #122940 by Steve Zara on February 6, 2008 at 9:32 am
May it's just me, though.
46. Comment #123069 by RickM on February 6, 2008 at 12:27 pm
47. Comment #123128 by Duff on February 6, 2008 at 1:33 pm
Didn't I read something about Lisa Randall preparing an experiment on the LHC that if successful would be the first minor proof of string theory??48. Comment #123169 by tiikki on February 6, 2008 at 2:32 pm
49. Comment #123175 by Steve Zara on February 6, 2008 at 2:39 pm
Didn't I read something about Lisa Randall preparing an experiment on the LHC that if successful would be the first minor proof of string theory??
Hmm... If I recall correctly there are now string theories which do give some predictions. They are connected to heavy ion physics (LHC
50. Comment #123232 by Rational_G on February 6, 2008 at 4:40 pm
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