Friday, June 20, 2008 | Reason : In the News | print version

Christianity 'could die out within a century'

by Telegraph

Thanks to Ryan Hill for the link.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/2160495/Christianity-%27could-die-out-within-a-century%27.html

Christianity 'could die out within a century'

More than half of Britons think Christianity is likely to have disappeared from the country within a century, according to a survey.

Research by the Orthodox Jewish organisation Aish found that just over a third of people thought religions like Christianity and Judaism would still be practiced in Britain in 100 years' time.

Although four in 10 people said they would choose to be a member of the Christian religion, almost the same number said they would rather practice no religion at all.

Buddhism however, proved more attractive than both Islam and Judaism, and was chosen by nine per cent of those questioned.

Aish UK's executive director Rabbi Naftali Schiff said the results of the YouGov poll of 2,000 people were alarming.

"It clearly demonstrates that religion, including Judaism, is becoming unattractive to the British public.

"At Aish we know that Judaism provides real meaning and enrichment to one's life. Whilst we have attracted many disinterested Jews back to Jewish identity it is clear there is much work to be done."

Research published earlier this year suggested that church attendance is declining so fast that the number of regular churchgoers will be fewer than those attending mosques within a generation.

According to Religious Trends, an analysis of religious practice in Britain, the huge drop off in attendance means that the Church of England, Catholicism and other denominations will become financially unviable.

In contrast, the number of actively religious Muslims is predicted to increase from about one million today to 1.96 million in 2035.

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1. Comment #197328 by mordacious1 on June 21, 2008 at 6:45 pm

Well good luck with this, I won't hold my breath.

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2. Comment #197329 by Bruno on June 21, 2008 at 6:45 pm

I would like to see the results of the same poll done in the U.S.

Other Comments by Bruno

3. Comment #197331 by prettygoodformonkeys on June 21, 2008 at 6:52 pm

The Telegraph:

Buddhism however, proved more attractive than both Islam and Judaism, and was chosen by nine per cent of those questioned.

Aish ...said the results of the YouGov poll of 2,000 people were alarming.

"It clearly demonstrates that religion, including Judaism, is becoming unattractive to the British public.

Widely accepted that the fundamentals of Buddhism are not 'religious'. Interesting.

Telegraph again:

In contrast, the number of actively religious Muslims is predicted to increase from about one million today to 1.96 million in 2035.

Let's hope there is a firm stance on the non-religious side by this time, to counter the growing craziness.....

Other Comments by prettygoodformonkeys

4. Comment #197333 by mordacious1 on June 21, 2008 at 6:56 pm

It's one of those "If the mountain won't come to mohammad..." things.

If islamic nations can't get nuclear weapons, then they will get a nuclear nation and turn it islamic".

Crap, I sound like Fanusi

Other Comments by mordacious1

5. Comment #197338 by bachfiend on June 21, 2008 at 7:23 pm

We really couldn't be that lucky.

Other Comments by bachfiend

6. Comment #197341 by 8teist on June 21, 2008 at 7:37 pm

Irrational beliefs will never die,once this current batch of religobabbles have done their dash something else will have sprung forth to separate the gullible from their cash and offer them life eternal.
I think we should get in first and start the Church of the Blue Suede shoes ,Elvis as our saviour, hounddog our gospel, you all know Elvis aint dead.
Alternatively Mick and Keef ,I quite enjoy grovelling at the altar of THE ROLLING STONES.

Other Comments by 8teist

7. Comment #197343 by TeraBrat on June 21, 2008 at 7:37 pm

We could all be dead in 100 years (the human race).

Other Comments by TeraBrat

8. Comment #197344 by Radesq on June 21, 2008 at 7:44 pm

I wonder -- does the fact that US Christians have become more aware of radical Islam strengthen their ties to religion or weaken it? Does a Christian become more devout and call for a new crusade or a redoubling of missionary conversion efforts? I can think of one very powerful but soon to be unemployed US Christian who seems to hold that mindset.

Other Comments by Radesq

9. Comment #197345 by AoClay on June 21, 2008 at 7:53 pm

It strengthens a lot of Christians beliefs for sure (if only the Muslims were Christians, tsk tsk), and it's sad how bad they are at realizing the common ground they share with those idiots.

Other Comments by AoClay

10. Comment #197347 by Radesq on June 21, 2008 at 8:02 pm

Christian fundies, embrace the mujahedeen in the mirror! The words and the beliefs may be a bit different but the irrationality comes from the same place.

On a lighter note, if teratornis is right about peak oil -- and others are right about global climate change and the resultant crop failures and water shortages -- at least we'll have something tangible to kill each other over in the future.

Other Comments by Radesq

11. Comment #197348 by Shuggy on June 21, 2008 at 8:05 pm

It'll be a worry if Christianity and Judaism die out leaving Islam as the only monotheism. Islam's quite triumphalist enough already. They need each other to show their adherants that there are other ways of being monotheists (since we're never going to be fast enough at weaning them of that one god too many). It'll be like the Magisterium of Lyra's world in the His Dark Materials series. In a way, a world-wide California of crazy cults, but all safely small, would be better.

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12. Comment #197349 by tacitus on June 21, 2008 at 8:05 pm

Bruno, the dynamics are very different in the US -- and I believe that, despite the whining of the fundies about the separation of church and state, it's that very aspect of their society that's helped keep Christianity strong in America where it's been failing in Western Europe.

However, there are signs that of the trend away from religion in beginning in the US too, just not as pronounced. I think the latest surveys show that 20% to 25% of young adults don't identify with any religion. A generation ago it was only 10% - 15%. That's quite a shift from a low baseline, and I suspect the trend will continue.

So the US may be 25-35 years behind where the UK is in regard to religious observance, but the same trend towards the secular is under way. It just might take longer to complete the process.

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13. Comment #197351 by Frankus1122 on June 21, 2008 at 8:22 pm

I was just thinking that the current wave of creationist/ID nonsense is the death rattle of the particular brand of religion from which it comes.
Creationism and ID is nonsense. Neither proposes anything worthwhile in terms of the advancement of science or knowledge. I believe truth will win out.
What happens to all those who so vehemently believe that the Bible is the literal word of God when it is proven not to be? I mean if we survive for another hundred years we will have progressed so much further scientifically (hopefully). Those that claim the Earth is 6000 years old and that God created all life as it is now will be seen as flat-earthers even more than they are now. Won't that crumble their faith even further? How could you believe any of what the Bible says if it is demonstrably so false?

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14. Comment #197352 by LochRaven on June 21, 2008 at 8:23 pm

In light of this, I suppose someone needs to break the news to God that he only has 100 years left to get off his ass, come out of hiding and start showing himself.

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15. Comment #197355 by Lil_Xunzian on June 21, 2008 at 8:43 pm

"At Aish we know that Judaism provides real meaning and enrichment to one's life. Whilst we have attracted many disinterested Jews back to Jewish identity it is clear there is much work to be done."

I've always been bothered by the way religious people try to recruit. Reminds me of junkies who actively recruit.

"At Wasted we know that heroin provides real meaning and enrichment to one's life. Whilst we have attracted many disinterested junkies back to heroin it is clear there is much work to be done."

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16. Comment #197357 by Abyst on June 21, 2008 at 8:44 pm

Personally, I would read "die out" as "no longer have the considerable political & social influence it currently has". Certainly some errant branches of Christianity will no doubt survive, but I think we'll begin to see less political involvement by organized Chrisitian groups (or at least, their involvement won't be so dominating, as it currently is in the U.S.).

I think Frankus1122 is right, in that organized Christianity is starting to have a desperate sound in their cry, as more anti-science and youth-group style attempts are made to stay relevant.

Other Comments by Abyst

17. Comment #197359 by catskill on June 21, 2008 at 9:05 pm

Maybe threats of violence after you are dead is not as effective as it used to be in getting new followers, but threats of chopping your head off right now still has the ability to persuade.

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18. Comment #197371 by huzonfurst on June 21, 2008 at 10:40 pm

I'd love to believe this, but everyone thought religion would die out at the end of the 19th century too. That ghost meme is a tough mother!

Other Comments by huzonfurst

19. Comment #197372 by Stacey on June 21, 2008 at 10:46 pm

@ Frankus1122

I was just thinking that the current wave of creationist/ID nonsense is the death rattle of the particular brand of religion from which it comes. Creationism and ID is nonsense. Neither proposes anything worthwhile in terms of the advancement of science or knowledge. I believe truth will win out. What happens to all those who so vehemently believe that the Bible is the literal word of God when it is proven not to be? I mean if we survive for another hundred years we will have progressed so much further scientifically (hopefully). Those that claim the Earth is 6000 years old and that God created all life as it is now will be seen as flat-earthers even more than they are now. Won't that crumble their faith even further? How could you believe any of what the Bible says if it is demonstrably so false?

Um...please don't shoot the messenger with an opinion but, I kinda think it's worse than that... I don't think it's dying. I think it's gearing up for the new wave.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_EKHK1C2IE

This is how they're doing it.

Other Comments by Stacey

20. Comment #197374 by King of NH on June 21, 2008 at 11:04 pm

Of course Christianity will die out in a few decades, if not significantly less time. It's simple logic, and I'm surprised people are still confused here. You must understand one simple basic fact: following the rapture all True Christians(TM) will be bodily lifted from the earth and they will know the truth, no longer needing the faith of Christianity. I believe that the rapture is currently due in 2012. O geez, that's soon. Wow, gonna go get packed and figure out how to smuggle weed onto a rapture flight.

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21. Comment #197378 by Raiko on June 21, 2008 at 11:31 pm

According to Religious Trends, an analysis of religious practice in Britain, the huge drop off in attendance means that the Church of England, Catholicism and other denominations will become financially unviable.

They already are logically unviable, anyway - but the Catholic church probably owns by far enough money to keep up for a long, long, long while even if nobody goes to church.

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22. Comment #197382 by Dispiracist on June 22, 2008 at 12:03 am

Death rattle is probably a good explanation for ID.

Opinion research is misleading and probably irrelevant, it's what people actually do that counts.

It is obvious that religious zeal, externally directed at non-believers, is resurging not declining.

What might be more relevant are psychologists' observations on the intensity of religious proselytising in various cults. As with viruses, cults have a dormant, internally-focussed, consolidation phase, followed by an environmentally-triggered, external propagation phase. The external intensity is proportional to their adherents' sense of uncertainty that heavily over-invested beliefs face impending disconfirmation. As with coke-snorting stock brokers and central bankers following an inflationary bubble, their first instinct is to attempt to perpetuate the illusion by manipulating a security's market price, rather than take a bath or get found out.

The harder they work to try and convince people of the 'truth', the more they reveal their sense of panic.

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23. Comment #197391 by Szkeptik on June 22, 2008 at 12:39 am

As a matter of fact I think that the degrading numbers are pushing adherents towards the extreme. Although almost every form of religion is dying in Britain, the most fundamentalist type of christianity is on the rise.

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24. Comment #197394 by Stacey on June 22, 2008 at 12:45 am

It's too bad we can't round up a former glamrock hair band member somewhere, dress him in a robe and get him to go around saying he has risen, gather up the flock and lead them to the mount...for the rapture is at hand...then make them all drink the koolaid...speed it up some.

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25. Comment #197400 by philiproulx on June 22, 2008 at 1:09 am

This guys math is seriously wrong...which makes it very difficult to take this article seriously...and gives rise to some ulterior motives.

...just over a third of people thought religions like Christianity and Judaism would still be practiced in Britain in 100 years' time

A third? I thought the article said that 4 in 10 for Christianity? The article doesn't mention how many are swayed by Judaism, but is has to be less than 9%, since that's Buddhism, and Buddhism surpasses Judaism...but even if Judaism is 3 or 4%, that still makes the combined more like 43 or 44%, which is nowhere close to "a third".

Buddhism however, proved more attractive than both Islam and Judaism, and was chosen by nine per cent of those questioned.

So, Buddhism gets 9% and beats out Judaism and Islam. Not sure how that sentence required a "however" though, since it followed comments about a 40% popularity of Christianity.

Wow, I don't even know where to start here... because it's clear that the author is mixing the conclusions of two different studies. I mean, if according to this study, 40% are swayed by Christianity, 40% are swayed by Atheism, 9% are swayed by Buddhism ...that only leaves 11% for all the other world religions.

To say that Christianity is on the decline when it has 40% popularity and then to end his piece with a comment on Muslim growth doesn't follow. And yes, I personally know why the Muslim faith is on the rise, contrary to it's popularity amongst those who were questioned in this study.

The title of the article also seems pretty intentional. I mean to say that Christianity has a 40% popularity, Islam has a less than 9% popularity (by deduction) and then state:

Research published earlier this year suggested that church attendance is declining so fast that the number of regular churchgoers will be fewer than those attending mosques within a generation.

Seems like more scare tactics to embitter Christians and Atheists alike against Islam.

This is propaganda, and I'm surprised that no one has called the author on this.

Other Comments by philiproulx

26. Comment #197408 by DamnDirtyApe on June 22, 2008 at 1:59 am

I look forward to the day when religious texts are shelved in the Mythology section with the other ancient gods.

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27. Comment #197415 by FightingFalcon on June 22, 2008 at 2:24 am

It seems like Buddhism and other New Age garbage is on the rise in the West. Let's replace one religion with another. Great.

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28. Comment #197416 by Barry Pearson on June 22, 2008 at 2:30 am

#197328 by mordacious1: Well good luck with this, I won't hold my breath.

#197338 by bachfiend: We really couldn't be that lucky.

#197341 by 8teist: Irrational beliefs will never die, once this current batch of religobabbles have done their dash something else will have sprung forth to separate the gullible from their cash and offer them life eternal.

#197371 by huzonfurst: I'd love to believe this, but everyone thought religion would die out at the end of the 19th century too. That ghost meme is a tough mother!

#197357 by Abyst: Personally, I would read "die out" as "no longer have the considerable political & social influence it currently has". Certainly some errant branches of Christianity will no doubt survive, but I think we'll begin to see less political involvement by organized Chrisitian groups (or at least, their involvement won't be so dominating, as it currently is in the U.S.).

There are various measures. What does "die out" actually mean? The people being surveyed probably wouldn't agree about the words they were using. Perhaps there will still be tiny "Christian cults" in 1000 years, but will that matter?

One measure I now use is "to what degree will religions be different from other hobbies?" (And the same goes for other irrational practices). Although we may despair about the way irrational beliefs don't entirely go away, and the way more beliefs arise to replace others, if they have no more social impact than other hobbies, would we care? I think this is the point made at #197357 by Abyst.

(It does matter that we have people around who have irrational beliefs, but it does appear that people can compartmentalise them. Belief in gods doesn't stop people doing good science, etc. We should measure the degree to which people can think critically when it matters, not just the amount of religion).

This is another promotion of "Religions are hobbies":
http://www.barrypearson.co.uk/articles/gods/hobby.htm

Other Comments by Barry Pearson

29. Comment #197430 by Muetze on June 22, 2008 at 3:23 am

I love statisticians.

If they added after every decades-long prediction the disclaimer "Everything we just determined depends on everything continuing linearly as it does right now, and the occurance of any little anomaly, which is extremely likely, will turn the whole process over; basically we don't have a clue what will happen", they would be out of their job in a heartbeat, but at least they would be honest.

Seriously, how can anybody be so conceited to claim that they have any knowledge good enough to predict how society will progess in the decades to come? I challenge any statistician in the 70s to extrapolate the current state of world politics from the 70s situation. It can't be done.

Other Comments by Muetze

30. Comment #197433 by royceghost on June 22, 2008 at 3:28 am

The religious in the west may be dying out, but in general the more secular people in western countries are dying out as well, except for immigration (thus rise of muslims). The non-religious don't replace themselves birthrate wise; that battle of numbers can never be won by them.

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31. Comment #197437 by Muetze on June 22, 2008 at 3:38 am

That would be beside the point, too. This is not going to become a more enlightened world by our "out-fucking" the fanatics (nice alliteration though). It has to be all about education and damage control. I like what Daniel Dennett said about the topic; that it's not about ridding the world of religious faith, which seems to be largely part of the human condition, but "disarm" the toxic elements in Cristianity (which is already quite benign) and Islam in order to make them compatible with a modern and free society. That seems to be a more attainable goal.

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32. Comment #197445 by HitbLade on June 22, 2008 at 4:05 am

The buddhism that is practiced today is very religious, I lived in Thailand for 2 years, my girlfriend is a Thai Buddhist-light (she is not very religious, just superstitious and hold some tradition), I know about Thai buddhism at least, and it's not something I would like to see in the west, from a safe distance it's a very sweet religion, but up close it's just a very very superstitious, but peaceful religion. Buddha kicks any mohammed or jesus' proverbial ass any day though. He was a philosopher, he did some cognitive science experiments, maybe Dan Dennett is a reincarnation of Buddha :P

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33. Comment #197449 by bugaboo on June 22, 2008 at 4:25 am

To be replaced with celebrity worship perhaps. I suspect that we have an innate tendency to worship whether it's sky gods or high status individuals. And if you think that there's a difference in that they are mere mortals think Elvis or Kim Jong Il.

Other Comments by bugaboo

34. Comment #197458 by Prankster on June 22, 2008 at 5:31 am

Good.......

Other Comments by Prankster

35. Comment #197466 by tahustvedt on June 22, 2008 at 6:52 am

I don't see how religion can survive understanding in the long run.

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36. Comment #197467 by scotriani on June 22, 2008 at 7:06 am

Religion is finally running out of steam.

As Philip Adams would say, "Let's not let a little thing like god come between us."

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37. Comment #197468 by TeraBrat on June 22, 2008 at 7:13 am

I don't see how religion can survive understanding in the long run.

How many people are capable of logical reasoning and understanding?

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38. Comment #197473 by Serdan on June 22, 2008 at 7:20 am

Muetze:

[...] Cristianity (which is already quite benign) [...]

No, it's not. It's just not as bad as Islam.

Other Comments by Serdan

39. Comment #197477 by Border Collie on June 22, 2008 at 8:08 am

Christianity dying out? Just about as much chance as superstition and stupidity dying out. Christianity dying out and leaving a huge vacuum for Islam to fill. Oh, wouldn't that be lovely?

Other Comments by Border Collie

40. Comment #197483 by Frankus1122 on June 22, 2008 at 8:30 am

Comment #197372 by Stacey

Yeah, maybe. But how many people will look at this film and say, "WTF? These people are crazy!" as opposed to those who will say, "It's about time we had this type of educational camp for our children."?

On the other hand I do agree thee is a danger that stupids will win out. Maybe I just don't want to believe it is so. :)

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41. Comment #197491 by Cartomancer on June 22, 2008 at 8:54 am

Is it just me who can't work out how many different studies this very short article is discussing?

I counted up to four:

i. The "Research by the Orthodox Jewish organisation Aish" on people's perceptions of the future of religiosity in Britain

ii. The study which found that four in ten people would "choose to be a christian" in a hundred years' time. I suspect this is actually the same as the first one, but the phrasing of the response seems very strange if it is the same one.

iii. The YouGov poll of 2000 people. Again, this might be the same thing, but the first sentence told us that Aish conducted the poll themselves, not that they merely stole the YouGov results and commented on them. Did they do it for YouGov or something?

iv. The results published earlier this year on church attendance, which is probably a different poll but might not be given the imprecision of the journalistic language. Since this survey deals with real concrete attendance figures rather than simply perceptions is probably the only one worth thinking about.

At any rate, what sort of a silly question would give information on whether people "choose to be a christian"? Did the researchers really go and ask people "Imagine you're still alive in 2108 and you have to pick a religious position to belong to, which religious position would you pick?" What other question could get that response? And why does anyone think that the idle counterfactual speculations of people in the street will have anything useful to contribute to our prediction of future trends?

Other Comments by Cartomancer

42. Comment #197513 by Jack Rawlinson on June 22, 2008 at 9:20 am

We wish.

Religion will die out when the last stupid human being dies out. So, around the same time as the end of the world.

Other Comments by Jack Rawlinson

43. Comment #197556 by Barry Pearson on June 22, 2008 at 10:19 am

#197491 by Cartomancer: Is it just me who can't work out how many different studies this very short article is discussing?

I counted up to four....

Although it didn't mention it, there are others. Below is a table extracted from a "Eurobarometer" in 2005, and extracts from UK Social Trends No. 38 2008. (I've turned the key tables into linked GIF images for ease).

Eurobarometer: Social values, Science and Technology, 2005:
http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/ebs/ebs_225_report_en.pdf
Extract of a table:
http://www.barrypearson.co.uk/articles/gods/assets/EB_2005.gif

Social Trends No. 38 2008 edition:
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_social/Social_Trends38/Social_Trends_38.pdf
Extracts of tables:
http://www.barrypearson.co.uk/articles/gods/assets/ST_2008.gif

Note that even within the same Social Trends document, the numbers don't appear to add up. Different surveys ask different questions of different audiences.

But if my job depended on "bums on pews", I would be a bit worried.

Other Comments by Barry Pearson

44. Comment #197616 by thewhitepearl on June 22, 2008 at 11:31 am

Not if Tony Blair has anything to do with it.

Other Comments by thewhitepearl

45. Comment #197622 by Saerain on June 22, 2008 at 11:41 am

All that stuff we call 'mythology' is a graveyard of dead religions. I wouldn't bet that Christianity or Islam are as invulnerable as they'd like.

Other Comments by Saerain

46. Comment #197645 by Barry Pearson on June 22, 2008 at 12:24 pm

#197348 by Shuggy: It'll be a worry if Christianity and Judaism die out leaving Islam as the only monotheism. Islam's quite triumphalist enough already. They need each other to show their adherants that there are other ways of being monotheists (since we're never going to be fast enough at weaning them of that one god too many).... In a way, a world-wide California of crazy cults, but all safely small, would be better.

#197477 by Border Collie: Christianity dying out and leaving a huge vacuum for Islam to fill. Oh, wouldn't that be lovely?

What would be the impact on Islam in the UK if Christianity (and other religions) die out in the UK?

How could Islam fill a vacuum? Are non-Muslims going to say "I would prefer to be Christian but that is dying out so I'll be a Muslim instead?" I doubt that! Islam will grow in the UK largely by immigration and birth, not by conversion.

Consider two extremes: the first has 2 million Muslims in a highly Christian UK. The second has 2 million Muslims in a highly non-believing, even atheist, UK. In which case would Muslims be most devout?

In the first case, the whole climate would be religious, and Muslims would seek a way of maintaining their specific identity, and support one-another in a society that tended to exclude them and even threaten them. There would be no motivation to become non-religious, and their own communities would view apostasy as defection. Many would be politically-oriented, to hang onto what they have as a minority.

In the second, the emphasis would be on non-religious aspects of society, and society wouldn't exclude them, but would see them as partners, consumers, neighbours, etc. Fundamentalists would certainly feel threatened. But young people would probably want to have a dual identity, taking advantage of both worlds, the secular consumer fun progressive world and their own cultural heritage. There would be little motivation to practise the more politically-oriented aspects of Islam, because there would be little they had to fight for.

I find it hard to believe that Islam would be more of a problem in the second case than the first. Quite the contrary.

Other Comments by Barry Pearson

47. Comment #197693 by moderndaythomas on June 22, 2008 at 2:00 pm