1. 'Climate crisis' needs brain gain
Comment #245423 by locri on September 10, 2008 at 5:08 pm
mrjonno
Science is not a democracy, 1 research scientists views are worth a million
2. 'Climate crisis' needs brain gain
Comment #245306 by locri on September 10, 2008 at 1:48 pm
Oh, that's ok. Apparently Mann tried to do statistics with out having any relevant background. So I guess it's fine.
Ok, that was a bit trollish, I admit. The point is that if you actually look at the Peer Reviewed papers that were published you'd notice that they were focusing on the statistical methods used by Mann. You are avoiding the point. McIntyre is a professional statistician.
If I was a zoologist and said 1 (plus) 14 = Elephant, a mathematician would be entirely right to say I'm full of it without having to understand even a scant bit of zoology unless there was some bizarre zoologist-only mathematics language that only zoologists know, but that isn't the case here.
The best easy read site on the history of this whole topic that I've found is here:
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2008/8/11/caspar-and-the-jesus-paper.html
Admittedly I won't be surprised if you disagree with this as well, but it's worth the read to find out the story of how the Mann hockey stick keeps on being resurrected with the same bad methodology and lots of politics.
3. 'Climate crisis' needs brain gain
Comment #245011 by locri on September 10, 2008 at 4:41 am
Buddha:
I said two _panels_ not people. Although both McIntyre and McKitrick were two people that first examined some of the Mann methodology. Calling them amateurs is not appropriate though as at least McIntyre is a professional statistician and he particularly focuses on the statistical analysis done in that case, so the area he knows.
Anyways, regardless of that the Wegman Panel and National Research Council both found the Mann Hockey Stick wanting. The hockey stick is controversial at best, and bad science at worst.
4. 'Climate crisis' needs brain gain
Comment #244919 by locri on September 9, 2008 at 7:43 pm
vaillancourtroch:
A little research shows some pretty simple things:
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2007/10/09/court-identifies-eleven-inaccuracies-al-gore-s-inconvenient-truth
Also, the film uses the controversial Mann Hockey Stick which has been offically discounted by at least two separate research panels as using poor methodology.
AIT also uses some "footage" of glaciers collapsing, which (it turns out) is actually CGI from The Day After Tomorrow.
The problem I have with all this is despite all these obvious errors, people still look to it as a good resource. At the same time, if they find even one little flaw in an opposing video, then most people that believe in AGW seem to throw that entire video out. It's a double standard, and that bothers me because it shows an obvious bias.
5. 'Climate crisis' needs brain gain
Comment #244712 by locri on September 9, 2008 at 10:43 am
Scot:
A discussion of what to do about AGW is certainly a good and proper discussion to have. Even so, we must at some point rely on experts to perform cost-benefit and risk analyzes and, hopefully, experts will come to a consensus. I'm not qualified to do this, nor am I qualified to argue about the accuracy of such analyzes.
6. 'Climate crisis' needs brain gain
Comment #244546 by locri on September 9, 2008 at 6:21 am
Martin S:
It's a variant of Pascal's Wager. It says: If there is a choice of two or more positions you can hold on an issue, then, after proper and full risk assessment, you should adopt the one that offers minimum risk with maximum gain. That's all. The risk of an asteroid impact is tiny. And the level of investment to mitigate that risk (small scale sky surveys) is proportionate.
The guy in the YouTube vid mentioned earlier says it far better than I can here.
7. 'Climate crisis' needs brain gain
Comment #244454 by locri on September 8, 2008 at 7:08 pm
I just felt the need to point out that the Pascal's Wager argument is just as ridiculous here as it is in religion.
Let's say we replace "global warming" with "a giant comet from space". Using the same theory, the consequenses of -not- preparing for a giant comet from space are extremely dire. More dire then AGW I'd say. So, should we spend the same amount of resources you are suggesting on AGW on space technology to protect us from comets?
Heck, we even have proof that comets have devastated large chunks of land before which we don't have for AGW due to it being something that can only happen when man is around.
Seriously, if you think this is a good argument, you might very well have a biased prespective.
On a seperate note, (not taking any sides) but one thing I've never really heard from the AGW crowd is some falsefiable experiment by which we can test the AGW hypothesis to some standard. According to what I've read, both warm and cold temperatures can mean global warming (or climate change or what have you) so I'm kind of lost as to how one can bump this into the realm of "testable".
8. Religion's role in the climate debate
Comment #206515 by locri on July 8, 2008 at 12:36 pm
Buddha:
Ok, I kinda thought that was along the lines of what you were talking about, but I wanted to make sure. I have my own gripes with the positive feedback idea, but that's a whole other discussion.
I realize there are bothersome people on this site and I think decius is sadly a perfect example of the type of backlash that many people who don't agree with the AGW hypothesis gets. That type of attitude doesn't really help an argument out. It is far better to try to rationally discuss the arguments, but I guess some people just aren't up for that.
I tend not to post that often, though, because climate issues are just about the only thing on this site that I disagree with. I'm already a rather dedicated atheist and despite what other people think, I love science and logic.
9. Religion's role in the climate debate
Comment #206397 by locri on July 8, 2008 at 10:35 am
Buddha:
CO2 has an amplifying effect on initial sources of warming. There is plenty of evidence that many of the warming and cooling periods in Earth's history match up with orbital forcing, which is then amplifyed in effect by CO2 - a bit like wearing a jumper on a hot day.
10. Religion's role in the climate debate
Comment #206393 by locri on July 8, 2008 at 10:30 am
Conclusion: Locri is a poor thinker, a dishonest debater, and has a deeply biased anti-scientific, anti-rational attitude. He is, in other words, a liability for a site which pride itself of being a clear-thinking oasis.
11. Religion's role in the climate debate
Comment #206158 by locri on July 8, 2008 at 6:27 am
Phil:
Are you suggesting the absorption spectrums (which predate the GW debate and are lab based data) have been rigged?
CO2 has its effect in the hotter end of earth re-radiation, not cooler as you state.
NO THEY HAVEN'T. Read your own bloomin' links.
Likewise it does not provide evidence that CO2 does NOT have a warming effect, as you seemed to infer in your original post. The point of the article is that CO2 may not necessarily initiate warming, but it will certainly amplify it considerably when it happens.
It's a fast moving and very complex field of research and our knowledge is being refined on a daily basis.
A combination of CO2 and Milankovich forcing is the best theory we have to explain the various hothouse periods in Earth's history. That includes the late Cretaceous - T-Rex was wearing speedos and sunglasses in Alaska at the time. ;-)
This statement alone shows that you have not researched this in any detail, and just aren't qualified to comment.
12. Religion's role in the climate debate
Comment #205867 by locri on July 7, 2008 at 8:32 pm
I put to you this challenge. Please could you summarise briefly all current ideas about global warming, and the theories behind them.
13. Religion's role in the climate debate
Comment #205831 by locri on July 7, 2008 at 8:07 pm
The curves shown on the site illustrate this point perfectly. I saw this rubbish ages ago, but then they hid some of the data to hide the error in the theory. The hidden data was what made me suspicious of it in the first place.
14. Religion's role in the climate debate
Comment #205617 by locri on July 7, 2008 at 2:11 pm
Given that a simple lab experiment shows Arrhenius was correct about the heat trapping properties of CO2 and that a simple model of the earth (with a fixed albedo and an oxygen / nitrogen atmosphere) will heat up more when insolated (sic) with more CO2 present, the onus is on you to hypothesise why in a complex world this might not be the case.
15. Religion's role in the climate debate
Comment #205612 by locri on July 7, 2008 at 2:04 pm
Buddha:
The point still stands. On the very links you posted RealClimate mentions that CO2 couldn't have caused the initial 1/6 of warming and it only "could" have caused the other 5/6ths. The don't know what really caused that warming. They suspect that it's a positive feedback effect, but suspicion does not equal evidence.
The most important part is they admit that climate is not usually driven by CO2, but now because man is in the equation things obviously must be so different. I don't quite follow that logic. There is so little we truly understand about the climate and to make such definite statements is kinda silly.
Do you have proof that CO2 caused a giant warming spike that effected the dinosaurs? If not, leave silly statements like that out please.
And yes, La Nina is happening, but just a short few years ago 2008 was supposed to be "the worst year yet" just like almost every other year. The apocolypse keeps getting pushed back because it isn't fitting their computer models. That doesn't inspire much confidence. They know the cycles of La Nina, so they should have been able to figure that out years ago. (If they know the climate as well as they say they do.)
And I'd love to hear a reply to my last bits on testable experiments as no one has taken on that yet. This is where (contrary to others on this thread) I relate AGW believers to Creationists. They can't give atheists like myself a testable hypothesis for creationism and it doesn't seem like the AGW crowd can either. The target keeps moving around and it seems almost everything proves AGW, so how can we really know what is what?
16. Religion's role in the climate debate
Comment #205550 by locri on July 7, 2008 at 12:45 pm
I consider myself a pretty moderate fellow, but I have been deeply worried about climate change, as a result of researching what has happened when CO2 has risen to similar levels in the past.
Not to be a party pooper, but the levels of CO2 measured in the past (via ice core samples) have been determined to have an average of an 800 year lag after temperature at high resolutions of the timescale. Therefore, in the past CO2 has decidedly NOT caused warming. There are many that believe because things are different (influenced by man, this time) that the rising level of CO2 now will cause temperature increase, but that's a different argument than what happened in the past.
CO2 has only been shown to increase temperature with certainty in a closed laboratory environment and not an open planetary environment.
Also, if you look at the temperature trends of the last bit, there hasn't been a lot of warming despite the increases in CO2. Comparing temp graphs to Hansen's "drastically cutting CO2" scenario we are actually at a lower temp than that (and much lower than the "no change" scenario).
The IPCC has recently said that the warming effects are "taking a break" and will pick up again in a few years. Huh?
The major problem I see with AGW is that there seems to be nothing falsifiable according to it's proponents. Temp goes up? AGW. Temp goes down? AGW. Drought? AGW. Floods? AGW. Etc etc...
If they really know so much about how the climate works to say we are definitely screwed, they should be able to give us a good testable method to verify if it is truly happening or not and I just have not been seeing it.
17. New atheists or new anti-dogmatists?
Comment #117102 by locri on January 28, 2008 at 9:15 am
I found this article very interesting and definitely agree that a lot of what is behind "New Atheism" is basically just anti-dogmatism. It's obvious that many of the prominent authors of "New Atheism" are anti-dogmatic when topics like Stalin and Pot Pol (sp?) are brought up.
The big question I have after reading this is, what's left of religion when you get rid of dogma? Seriously... the foundations of religion ARE dogma. If you take it away you just have a social group of people and you might as well be talking about the local chapter of 4H or something.
18. The New Atheism: An Interview with Mitchell Cohen
Comment #77950 by locri on October 11, 2007 at 8:41 am
Two things:
I'm a bit confused... people above are saying that the interviewer is stupid, but from the looks of the article it's Cohen interviewing himself. Am I wrong on this one? It's an interview OF him BY him.
And also, I really dislike his implication that atheism is somehow tied in with left-wing thinking and that it's only important for left-wing intellectuals. Why does it matter if you are left-wing or right-wing? New Atheism still matters for ANY intellectual or any person in general IMO.
19. Why Christians should take Richard Dawkins seriously
Comment #72288 by locri on September 20, 2007 at 4:41 pm
Every time I read something like this I really have to wonder: What the heck DOES it take to be considered "knowledgeable" enough to criticize religion?
Seriously, I'm quite sure Dawkin's has read both The Bible (both old testament and new) as well as a few other religious books... frankly, there isn't much more "knowledge" to religion other than the books that some people wrote who were supposedly inspired by god or possessed by god or something along those lines.
Gah... such inane arguments and they are all the same because there is little else they can do except claim "oh, that's not MY god, you must be thinking some other god".
20. Another view
Comment #66513 by locri on August 30, 2007 at 7:24 am
Veronique:
The major problem with the wikipedia quote you have there is that it only talks about moderate to severe cases rather than what St. John's Wart is normally used for which is mild to moderate.
Check out http://healthlibrary.epnet.com/GetContent.aspx?token=e0498803-7f62-4563-8d47-5fe33da65dd4&chunkiid=31050 entry from iHerb's health library. They do a fairly good job of showing a balanced viewpoint on most herbal remedies. You'll note in the same article that it discusses how there is no evidence for St. John's Wart helping in a variety of other conditions that it's been rumored to help with.
Quote from the above mentioned page:
"Taken as a whole, research suggests that St. John's wort is more effective than placebo and approximately as effective as standard drugs."
"The big problem with these products, be they naturally derived or synthesised, is that they are sold as 'cure-alls' with no regulation. They are prescribed by people under no regulation and with somewhat spurious training."
Yes, I would absolutely agree... but one of the reasons there is no regulation on these products goes back to what I was saying before, no company wants to run the tests because they would have to spend a lot of money for little to no profit. It would be nice if there was enough money to do actual good studies of best dosage and such, but that sadly doesn't seem to happen.
21. Another view
Comment #66371 by locri on August 29, 2007 at 8:29 pm
Sorry, correction... Viagra was originally researched for high blood pressure and some cardiac disease.
Oh, and I also wanted to add that there are many cases where the scientific medicine only treats the symptoms rather than the base cause, which isn't necessarily a good thing either.
22. Another view
Comment #66369 by locri on August 29, 2007 at 8:25 pm
Although I generally liked "Enemies of Reason" there were a few parts that did actually bother me. The primary thing that did has to do with the fact that while science as an overall thing is fantastic and can do wonderful things, Dawkins is not taking into account the human aspect of scientific medicine.
The main thing I want to get across here is that lots of stupid things happen in the scientific medical industry (like wendelin's experience of what sounds like a bad prescription) that happen because of greedy and corrupt people. Or just the bizarreness of how the medical industry works.
Examples: Because of greed, there are many great alternative medications that DO work like St. John's Wart, 5-HTP, Valerian, Melatonin, etc. that aren't put into rigorous trials and prescribed because drug companies couldn't make any money off of them. They are all non-patentable substances and some of them exist in nature so can be easily produced.
Hand in hand with this is that oftentimes Doctors overlook perfectly reasonable and cheap solutions in favour of prescribing expensive and unnecessary drugs.
Another thing is that sometimes the medical industry discovers things not by a well laden process of creating something to help with a specific illness but rather try tons and tons of variations on different formulas and see what their effects are. While this might help in some cases, it gives me (at least) the impression that it might in some cases mess with a body more than it helps. Cue the giant list of side-effects included in all the drug commercials. If you don't believe me, read up on how Viagra was accidentally discovered in the process of finding something to help out with heart attacks.
And in all, scientific medicine can do wonderful things, but there are many remedies out there that haven't been scientifically backed, but do work nonetheless and it's a bit arrogant to say that scientific medicine is flawless when there have been definite cases of things going wrong. I wish Dawkins would, for the sake of full disclosure, talk about that as well.
23. Ditching God: Emboldened Atheists Are Finding Purpose In Coming Out Of The Closet
Comment #57928 by locri on July 22, 2007 at 11:28 am
Although I think it's a great thing that organizations like CFI exist, I do have a few things I feel like I have to say.
I live nearby the particular center mentioned in the article and have been there twice. The one time I went there and there were actually a fair amount of people I was rather disappointed that there seemed to be a lot of clique-ishness in the group. I tried to start up a conversation with a few people but no one really seemed interested.
There were two people closer to my age that were pleasant to talk to for the bit that I did, but seemed absorbed into other things so I wasn't able to talk to them much either.
Maybe it was just a bad day for me and the people I tried to talk to, but it didn't feel as welcoming as I had hoped. I'm not quite sure why. I hope this experience isn't common when trying to join Atheist/Freethought groups, but I've noted that there is a similar trend in religious groups. It's very easy to call yourself a part of that group, but to truly be part of the community can become a difficult thing.
24. Study: Religion is Good for Kids
Comment #34868 by locri on April 25, 2007 at 1:30 pm
"But when parents argued frequently about religion, the children were more likely to have problems."
I think this is the primary issue with the study. I'd imagine if a lot of arguing was done in front of small children regardless of what it's about, it could cause issues.
This, however, wouldn't be an issue in a household with two atheist or agnostic parents. As Rtambree said, "Rubbish"