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Comments by UmbrellaMan


1. 'God Is Not a Moderate'

Comment #22661 by UmbrellaMan on February 20, 2007 at 1:58 pm

Sam Harris has responded:

http://www.beliefnet.com/story/209/story_20904_6.html

2. The God of the Bible is No Delusion!

Comment #18323 by UmbrellaMan on January 19, 2007 at 5:55 pm

Hi Mark,

I think the reason why your defense of biblical prophesy is meeting such resistance in this forum is because it does not appear that you have conducted a critical analysis of your claim. Ultimately this is a question of probability, and many of us here suspect that you are underestimating the statistical significance of the anecdotal data you've presented. There are some important questions that need to be addressed, many of which have already been alluded to by other commenters throughout this thread. For example:

What is the complete list of *all* predictions that the bible makes? (not just the ones that appear to make your case)

What is the level of specificity/vagueness of each of these predictions?

What set of pre-determined rules should be used to "score" the accuracy of each prediction?

What are the realized "accuracy scores" of each individual prediction? (the evaluator would of course need to be impartial or somehow blinded)

What would be the statistical likelihood of observing a set of scores as unlikely as this in a book of "random predictions"?

How many other books throughout history have made comparable predictions? (In other words, how many other prophesy books could have ended up being your "bible", all of which you ended up dismissing due to their low predictive power?)

While an honest analysis may not be possible due to the lack of inherent objectivity, nevertheless the above points should at least be acknowledged by all sides before a serious discussion of your claim could even take place. It may very well be that the bible has indeed fared quite well as a prognosticator of past events. But if the investigation is not guided by questions like these then its resulting conclusions are going to continue to fall on deaf ears.

Cheers