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I don’t think it works like that.

When looking at prior probability, you still have to use evidence and/or reason to say something happened or not. That’s a problem when talking the creation of a universe, since we only have our one example. But for, let’s say, the odds that Jesus was/is God, or a god. What you would is establish a set of characters and figures like Jesus in history. Virgin birth, did some miracles, called the elite corrupt, etc. Then, out of those, how many were proven to be a god? You’re pretty much done with the formula at that point since any additional evidence is going to have to balance out that low starting point.

You could however ask, how many of them turned out to be real people in history. A few did.